Raiders In The Mix For The #1 Overall Pick– Is It Worth Giving Up Some of the Farm?

According to ESPN’s own, Adam Schefter, the Chicago Bears are in the market to find suitable candidates for a trade of their #1 overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft. The tweet lists the usual suspects, (teams drafting in the top-10 of the draft with a need at the QB position), and of course, the Las Vegas Raiders are on the list.

The Chicago Bears are in a complete rebuild, with their QB position not being a position of need for them, so the possibility of trading back in order to gain draft capital for the future is enticing. Conversely, the Raiders, who seems to be just a few solid moves via draft/free agency from being a formidable contender can benefit mostly from sacrificing some draft capital to move up in the draft in order to acquire a virtual “sure-shot” at the QB position, in elite prospect Bryce Young, 2021 Heisman Trophy winner from Alabama and fellow Pasadena-native. 

But what exactly would it cost the Raiders to make such a splash? As the Eve of the Underwear Olympics is upon us, and evaluators and scouts gear up to burn the midnight oil in order to turn every stone, watch every possible second of film, and to attend every possible accredited Pro Day on campus in order to provide their due diligence into giving the most accurate grades on each prospect– even the best of executives and evaluators find it head-scratching into finding the proper trade value for a prospect. 

So while the evaluators evaluate and the scouts scout, let me, the (not so) young, budding journalist, breakdown what a trade for Bryce Young to the Raiders may look like, with the help of the Pro Football Focus draft simulator. 

As you can see, I conducted a mock draft for both the Raiders and the Bears to get a good feel of how the draft will lay out, after getting an approved trade through. I offered the Raiders #7 overall of this year’s draft, as well as the Raiders 2024 2nd and 3rd round picks for the Bears #1 overall, and it was approved, receiving a B overall grade on the trade itself. 

Now let’s be real, if this trade was to land, one, it has to make sense for both teams, and 2nd, it has to be a perceived home-run type deal in order for the Bears to pull the trigger. It is for the latter that I believe it would take a little more for both sides to see eye to eye on a deal. So, based on my previous approved trade proposal, here’s what an A+ graded trade would look like: 

Bears Receive: 2023 #7 overall, 2023 5th rd pick, 2024 1st rd pick and a 2024 4th rd pick. Raiders Receive: 2023 #1 overall

Now, the question begs to be asked: Is Bryce Young worth leveraging this much draft capital? I’m not sure. But the proper question to ask is, do you risk some draft capital for the solid chance of picking up the QB of your franchise’s future? The answer to that is yes, you absolutely take the risk. Yes, his measurables are hard to ignore, measuring in at 5’10” and likely a tad under 190 lbs. is not ideal. However, the ball accuracy, the ability to improvise and use his legs when needed, and his winner’s pedigree are all intangibles that outweigh his small stature, in the eyes of evaluators. 

Now, here’s a twist: suppose the trade gets inked and you see CJ Stroud, QB from Ohio State, absolutely delivers during the evaluation process. You are then in a position to make a small reach for the guy that you have wanted since Day 1. This is also a possibility I wouldn’t scoff at if it happened. Either way, taking a risk and giving up some draft capital in order to get your franchise QB, whether it is Bryce Young or CJ Stroud, is well worth the risk.